By R. D. Shaver, Michael Kennedy
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Additional info for Benefits of Positive Passenger Profiling on Baggage Screening Requirements
Although the estimates for 42 machine needs in those earlier studies were significantly smaller than those derived in this study (mostly because the criteria for sizing these deployments were less demanding), the relative needs among airports is, in our judgment, satisfactory for our needs. 75. We will use the demands shown on this chart as inputs to the cost tradeoffs that we will now discuss. 43 Costing Assumptions • Factors included in total machine cost – Acquisition costs, based on estimated costs for EDS machines – Personnel costs for operating and maintaining the equipment – Facility modification costs for machine installation • First-order estimates only, scaled for annual life cycle costs assuming a 10 year machine life • Value of time from Department of Transportation guidelines 44 We calculated the annualized cost of any overall EDS machine buy using the following assumptions (all costs are in dollars of 2002 purchasing power).
Buy sizes greater than this 46 amount add costs that are not justified by the decrease in passenger time they produce. Given the slopes of the curves, it is clearly better to overbuy EDS machines than to underbuy them. 45 billion. Henceforth, we will call this calculation the simple calculation. A more complex calculation that takes into account a wider set of economic considerations will be discussed shortly. When applied to buy size calculations, we label it the complex calculation. 47 Sensitivity of Total Costs to EDS Reliability $8 Annual Cost of Baggage Screening Program in 2010 ($B) 50% Positive Profiling $7 EDS rel.
51 Sensitivity of Total Costs to EDS Reliability Annual Cost of Baggage Screening Program in 2010 ($B) 7 Passenger Criteria: Baggage Makes Plane 99% of Trials EDS rel. = 80% EDS rel. = 90% EDS rel. = 100% 6 5 4 3 Simple Calculation 2 1 Max positive profiling = 50% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Excess Time Spent at Airports (min) 52 This chart expands the prior calculations to include other reliability assumptions. It is noteworthy that the minimum costs all occur for average delays in the vicinity of three minutes.
Benefits of Positive Passenger Profiling on Baggage Screening Requirements by R. D. Shaver, Michael Kennedy