By Mladen Engelsfeld
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Additional resources for Croatian through conversation (Hrvatski u razgovoru)
Indeed, periods of desynchronisation may help to contain inflationary pressures, since excess demand can be redistributed across countries. In addition, if there is a common factor present in business cycles across countries, and this is found to be present systematically, policy makers would have to consider it when assessing developments in individual economies. 3 Determinants of business cycle synchronisation Numerous contributions attempt to explain international business cycle co-movements and synchronisation.
2 shows indeed that the import content of exports (which is the mirror image of the value added per unit of export) – measured as the long-term elasticity of imports with respect to a one unit increase in exports – has risen for the euro area from 38 per cent in 1995 to around 44 per cent in 2000. 4 However, since the internationalisation of production – which partly explains the rise in imported intermediate inputs – has also boosted exports as well,5 the first-round net impact of a one per cent increase in exports on GDP growth has roughly remained constant in the euro area.
Overall, such heterogeneity across the euro area countries in terms of their degree of oil dependency implies that the impacts of an oil price rise can be quantitatively quite different between the individual countries. There are various mechanisms by which an oil price hike may affect growth. On the demand side, an oil price rise may reduce real income and thereby put downward pressure on consumption. It can also have a negative impact on investment via a reduction in profitability, particularly if the oil shock is expected to be relatively persistent.
Croatian through conversation (Hrvatski u razgovoru) by Mladen Engelsfeld